2023年年报点评：利润率有望见底回升，出海业务增长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Keda Industrial (600499 SH) with a target price of 10 47 RMB [1] Core Views - Keda Industrial's profitability is expected to bottom out and rebound with promising growth in overseas business [1] - The company's overseas building materials business achieved revenue of 3 66 billion RMB in 2023 a year-on-year increase of 11 6% [4] - Keda Industrial's building ceramics production exceeded 150 million square meters in 2023 a 22% year-on-year increase [4] - The company's overseas building materials business accounted for approximately 60% of total revenue and 71% of gross profit in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - In 2023 Keda Industrial achieved revenue of 9 7 billion RMB a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 09 billion RMB in 2023 a year-on-year decrease of 50 79% [7] - The company's gross profit margin was 29 2% in 2023 a slight decrease of 0 2 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Operating cash flow was 731 million RMB in 2023 a year-on-year decrease of 26 7% [6] Business Segments - The building materials machinery business achieved revenue of 4 48 billion RMB in 2023 a year-on-year decrease of 20 2% [5] - Overseas orders accounted for over 55% of total orders in the building materials machinery business in 2023 [5] - The negative electrode materials business achieved revenue of 740 million RMB in 2023 a year-on-year decrease of 38 9% [5] Overseas Expansion - Keda Industrial is expanding its overseas building materials business with new projects in Kenya Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Tanzania and Peru [5] - The company's subsidiary BlueTech Lithium has increased its annual production capacity to 40 000 tons of lithium carbonate [5] - BlueTech Lithium achieved production and sales of 36 000 tons and 38 000 tons of lithium carbonate respectively in 2023 [5] Future Projections - The report forecasts revenue of 12 26 billion RMB and 14 03 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1 92 billion RMB and 2 2 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7] - The company's ROE is expected to be 14 92% and 15 19% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [7]