公司事件点评报告：煤铝价格下跌影响盈利，煤炭扩建项目将释放增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 was CNY 37.625 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.905 billion, an increase of 22.07% [2] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to the drop in prices of key products such as coal, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum foil [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in 2024 due to the resumption of production and expansion projects [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company produced 1.518 million tons of aluminum, a decrease of 7.16% year-on-year, while coal production increased by 5.25% to 7.1696 million tons [2] - The average price of aluminum in 2023 was CNY 18,702 per ton, up 6.43% year-on-year, while the average price of coal dropped by 18.72% to CNY 812 per ton [2] Production and Expansion Plans - The company plans to produce 1.5 million tons of aluminum and 6.9 million tons of raw coal in 2024, with significant projects like the Liangbei coal mine expansion expected to reach full production [4] - The second phase of the new materials project, focusing on battery foil, is expected to commence production in August 2024 [4] Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's main revenue from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 39.995 billion, CNY 41.754 billion, and CNY 43.383 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at CNY 6.351 billion, CNY 6.869 billion, and CNY 7.333 billion [4][6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 6.7, 6.2, and 5.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]