Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 12.71-14.13 RMB per share, based on a 2024 PE valuation of 45.0-50.0X [8][10][24] Core Views - The company has established a "1+3" competitive landscape in the electronic bulk gas business, competing with three major foreign gas companies (Linde, Air Liquide, and Air Products) [2] - The company's electronic bulk gas market share reached 11.75% in 2023, with a domestic bid-winning capacity share of 24.6%, ranking second in the industry [2] - The company is the first domestic gas company to directly participate in the global helium supply chain, with new production bases in Guangzhou and Wuhan enhancing its market supply capabilities [2] - The company's R&D investment in 2023 increased by 23.79% YoY, reaching 88.76 million RMB, with significant achievements in digitalization, intelligent operation, and helium supply chain technology [23] - The company's revenue in 2023 grew by 19.20% YoY to 1.835 billion RMB, with electronic bulk gas contributing 65.96% of total revenue and helium business showing steady growth [29] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 2.242 billion RMB in 2024, 2.749 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.398 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits of 373 million RMB, 469 million RMB, and 611 million RMB, respectively [10][18] - The EPS is projected to be 0.28 RMB in 2024, 0.36 RMB in 2025, and 0.46 RMB in 2026, with a reasonable market valuation of 16.77-18.64 billion RMB [10][18] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 34.4%-35.1% from 2024 to 2026, with a net profit margin of 16.6%-18.0% [18][25] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from 5.6% in 2023 to 9.0% in 2026, driven by operational efficiency and revenue growth [18][25] Industry and Competitive Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading domestic supplier of electronic bulk gas, with significant advantages in technology and management, and a clear trend of domestic substitution [24] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the electronic bulk gas and specialty gas industry is 27.12X for 2024E and 21.28X for 2025E, reflecting the company's premium valuation due to its competitive edge [24] - The company's helium business is expected to further consolidate its leading position in the domestic market, supported by its global supply chain capabilities [2][23] Operational Highlights - The company secured multiple electronic bulk gas projects in 2023, including Xi'an Xinxin, Guangzhou Zengxin, and Shenzhen STMicroelectronics, contributing to its revenue growth [29] - The company's helium production bases in Guangzhou and Wuhan have been completed and put into operation, enhancing its supply capacity and market competitiveness [2][29] - The company has made breakthroughs in key technologies such as "Super-N" and "Fast-N" nitrogen generation systems, as well as subcritical CO2 transportation technology, strengthening its R&D capabilities [23]
横向拓展价值链条,纵向深耕氦气储备
Guangzhou Guanggang Gases & Energy (688548) 海通证券·2024-03-27 16:00