NHPM(601882) Changjiang Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][19] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from structural opportunities such as policy advantages, self-sufficiency, and overseas expansion, with projected net profits of 700 million, 840 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 19x, 16x, and 14x respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 816 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, up 11.47% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 137 million yuan, reflecting a 7.36% increase year-on-year [2][15] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been continuously improving since 2019, with a gross margin of 29.94% and a net margin of 18.34% in 2023, representing increases of 2.63 percentage points and 1.95 percentage points year-on-year respectively [13][36] - The company’s revenue from CNC horizontal lathes increased by 48.30% year-on-year, with sales volume up 29.52% and average price rising by 14.5%, primarily driven by strong demand in overseas markets [13][36] - The company’s overseas revenue grew by 76.06% year-on-year, indicating successful market expansion efforts [13][17] Market and Industry Context - The machine tool industry is closely tied to the manufacturing sector, which is currently in a phase of weak recovery. If the recovery does not meet expectations, it may adversely affect machine tool demand and the company's operating environment [6][39] - The domestic demand for CNC machine tools has shown signs of recovery, with production increasing since September 2023, ending a prolonged downturn [35]