2H23不及预期，高品质发展目标延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with the target price currently under review [1][3][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue and net profit growth of 5.9% and 15.3% year-on-year for 2H23, respectively. Excluding the impact of the merger with Miaokelando, the comparable revenue growth for the year was 2.9% [1]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 30% to 40%, indicating a positive outlook on cash flow and profitability [1]. - The company aims for revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits for 2024, with an operational profit margin improvement target of 30-50 basis points [1]. - Despite a slowdown in industry growth, the company is focusing on high-quality development and optimizing its product mix, particularly in high-end liquid milk and cheese segments [1]. Financial Summary - For FY23E, the company expects sales revenue of RMB 99,315 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. The net profit is projected to be RMB 5,883.2 million, reflecting a 10.9% increase [2][9]. - The company anticipates a continued improvement in gross margin, with a forecasted gross profit of RMB 36,151 million for FY23E, translating to a gross margin of 36.4% [9][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23E is estimated at RMB 1.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 [2][9]. Business Strategy - The company has identified that a price-for-volume strategy is not suitable for current development, emphasizing the importance of maintaining quality [1]. - The company plans to enhance its digital marketing and channel strategies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, particularly in the cheese segment [1]. - The company is cautious about expanding overseas due to geopolitical risks, despite strong growth in its Southeast Asian ice cream business [1].