Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for DPC Dash with a target price of HK$73.05, reflecting a potential upside of 25.2% from the current price of HK$53.50 [6][8][17]. Core Insights - DPC Dash's FY23 results were in line with expectations, showing a 51% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 3.1 billion, driven by strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) and increased sales per store in new growth markets [2][9]. - The company is optimistic about FY24E, expecting continued positive SSSG despite challenges such as a high base from FY23 and seasonal factors affecting sales [2][9]. - The management has reiterated its store opening plan, targeting 240 new stores in FY24E, with a more positive outlook for FY25E-26E, aiming for 300 to 350 new stores [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,051 million in FY23A to RMB 4,118 million in FY24E, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [3][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve to 1.3% in FY24E, with net profit projected to turn positive at RMB 15 million [3][10]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 72.6% for FY24E [10][11]. Sales and Growth Projections - DPC Dash's sales per store in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to grow by 3% and 5% respectively, while new growth markets are anticipated to see higher growth rates [2][10]. - The company has seen strong initial sales in new cities, with first-month sales exceeding RMB 5 million in locations like Xi'an and Changsha [2][9]. - The delivery mix in new growth markets remains low at 42%, indicating potential for future growth in SSSG [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that DPC Dash is currently trading at 1.5x FY24E P/S, which is higher than the peer average of 1.3x, but still considered attractive due to a projected 32% sales CAGR from FY23 to FY26E [2][6][13]. - A DCF valuation method supports a share price estimate of HK$73.14, aligning closely with the target price based on P/S multiples [17][18].
Sales beats as new markets continue to succeed