达势股份-达美乐中国(01405)是达美乐比萨在中国大陆、中国香港特别行政区和中国澳门特别行政区的 独家总特许经营商。 在营销策略方面，公司精准洞察年轻消费群体偏好，通过趣味"盲盒"、节日联动等创意营销方式，为用 餐场景赋予了互动娱乐体验，并通过消费者的积极参与产生了持续社交传播效应。例如，达美乐中国的 六一儿童节"芽趣萌生"套餐，创新性地将超值比萨与种植盲盒相结合;叠加后续的"超级周买一送一"限 时促销活动，更提供了高性价比的选择。7月，其与人气品牌史努比合作推出联名挂件盲盒，6款夏日运 动挂件精准满足年轻消费者的潮玩收集需求，显著增强了用户黏性与品牌互动度。 得益于强劲的品牌势能与持续的产品创新，叠加数字化渠道的高效转化能力，达势股份在2025年上半年 实现显著的用户增长。截至2025年6月30日，达美乐中国的会员计划"达人荟"会员人数突破3,010万，较 2024年同期的1,940万实现55.2%的同比增长。过去一年中，新增首次消费用户达1,320万人，反映出品 牌的市场渗透能力和运营实力。 近日，在南方都市报主办的"2025高品质消费品牌TOP100创新生态大会"上，达势股份不仅登上"2025高 品质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]

Group 1 - Three chain restaurants have gone public in Hong Kong in 2023, with notable stock performance: Dashi Holdings (01405.HK) up 116.74%, Xiaocaiyuan (00999.HK) up 25.65%, and Green Tea Group (06831.HK) up 31.57% since their IPOs [2][3] - Dashi Holdings, the operator of Domino's Pizza in Greater China, has seen its stock price rise from an IPO price of 46.00 HKD to 99.70 HKD [2][3] - Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group also reported positive stock performance since their IPOs, with current prices of 10.68 HKD and 9.46 HKD respectively [2][3] Group 2 - Laoxiangji, a chain restaurant based in Anhui, has submitted an application for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to replicate the success of other listed chain restaurants [2][3] - Established in 2003, Laoxiangji has expanded its network to 1,564 stores across 58 cities by April 2025, with a focus on a "direct + franchise" expansion model [4][5] - The number of franchise stores has outpaced self-operated stores, with a significant increase in franchise locations from 118 to 653 between the end of 2022 and April 2025 [5] Group 3 - Laoxiangji's supply chain is a key advantage, having established an integrated supply chain covering breeding, procurement, processing, storage, and logistics [7] - In 2024, Laoxiangji reported total revenue of 6.288 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 439 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 6.99% [7][8] - Compared to other newly listed chain restaurants, Laoxiangji's same-store sales growth rate of 2.6% is slightly higher than Dashi Holdings' 2.5%, while Green Tea and Xiaocaiyuan reported negative growth [7][8] Group 4 - Laoxiangji faces challenges, including intense competition from food delivery platforms affecting both delivery and dine-in services [9] - The company has a high dependency on the East China market, with 86% of its stores located in this region, particularly in Anhui [9] - Financially, Laoxiangji has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating potential liquidity issues, with cash reserves of approximately 572 million RMB against significant payables [9] Group 5 - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to enhance its supply chain, expand its store network, improve IT capabilities, and strengthen brand marketing [9][10] - However, the recent surge in IPO activities in Hong Kong raises questions about investor interest in Laoxiangji's prospects [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recognition of Domino's China as an "ESG Innovative Practice Excellence Enterprise" highlights the increasing importance of ESG principles in driving business value and innovation in the industry [1]. Group 1: ESG Practices and Innovations - Domino's China integrates technology and model innovation to create a unique business model that generates both social and economic value, deeply embedding ESG into its operations [1]. - The company emphasizes food safety and quality from farm to table, with a 100% internal quality assurance audit coverage across all stores, and plans to launch several new products in 2024 [2]. - The implementation of a Transportation Management System (TMS) optimizes logistics routes between central kitchens and stores, ensuring product quality while reducing energy consumption and costs [2]. Group 2: Sustainable Delivery and Safety Measures - Domino's China has established a comprehensive safety and efficiency system for delivery riders, balancing both aspects to ensure sustainable development [2]. - The company employs technology to prevent unnecessary deliveries and speeding, optimizing task distribution through an intelligent delivery system [2]. - Safety measures include providing certified electric bicycles for delivery riders and implementing emergency protocols during extreme weather conditions [2]. Group 3: Value Chain Empowerment and ESG Efficiency - The company extends its ESG capabilities across the entire value chain, including procurement, transportation, processing, and store operations, maximizing ESG effectiveness [4]. - In procurement, Domino's China has reduced the proportion of non-biodegradable plastic packaging from 16% in 2020 to 4% in 2024, promoting sustainable sourcing practices [4]. - The introduction of TMS in transportation aims to optimize costs and minimize environmental impact by prioritizing nearby suppliers [4]. Group 4: Waste Reduction and Circular Economy - Domino's China employs a dual strategy of "smart loss control + recycling" to minimize material waste, targeting a waste loss rate of no more than 0.1% in central kitchens [5]. - The company uses reusable containers for packaging key food ingredients and replaces cardboard boxes with recyclable turnover boxes [5]. - The ongoing introduction of low-carbon equipment and technologies in central kitchens and stores signifies a commitment to sustainable practices [5]. Group 5: Industry Benchmark and Future Potential - The innovative ESG practices of Domino's China set a benchmark in the industry, showcasing a sustainable development model with significant effectiveness [5]. - The company is positioned to find optimal value coordinates within the ESG development wave, continuously unlocking its value potential [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dashijia, is the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, and has undergone significant internal reforms since 2017, leading to rapid expansion and revenue growth. Group 1: Company Overview - Dashijia has expanded its store presence to 1,008 locations across 39 cities by the end of 2024, demonstrating a strong growth trajectory [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with same-store sales maintaining positive growth for 30 consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The global pizza market was valued at $53.886 billion in 2022, with the Chinese market at ¥37.5 billion, showing a CAGR of 6% and 9% respectively from 2016 to 2022, indicating a higher growth rate in China [2] - Domino's Pizza holds the largest market share globally at 33% in 2024, and has surpassed its competitor, Pizza Hut, in the Chinese market [2] - The company's competitive advantages include a unique pre-mixed flour recipe, a diverse product range, and a robust delivery network that ensures timely service [2] Group 3: Expansion Strategy and Sales Performance - The company is in a store expansion phase, planning to add 240 new stores in 2024, with a target of reaching 2,000 stores by 2027 and 3,000 by 2029-2030 [3] - The average sales per store are projected to decline by 7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024 due to new store openings and business restructuring, but a recovery is expected in the medium to long term [3] - The membership system is being refined, with an expected membership count of 24.5 million by the end of 2024, contributing significantly to revenue [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of ¥1.29 billion, ¥1.96 billion, and ¥2.56 billion from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 133%, 53%, and 31% respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a favorable valuation, with a PEG ratio of 0.73x for 2025 and 1.21x for 2026, indicating potential for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid expansion and improving profitability despite challenges in the broader dining market [25] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, with a significant increase in store count and same-store sales [25][27] - The company is well-positioned in the growing Chinese pizza market, with a focus on both high-end urban consumers and lower-tier markets [56][62] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, with a significant expansion strategy initiated in 2017 [14][18] - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 1,008 stores across 39 cities, with a strong focus on delivery and menu optimization [25][27] 2. Market Potential - The Chinese pizza market is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 12% from 2010 to 2024, significantly outpacing global averages [41][42] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its efficient delivery system and a diverse product matrix that appeals to various consumer segments [56][62] 3. Expansion Strategy - The company plans to continue its aggressive store expansion, with net new store openings projected at 300 and 350 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [25] - The focus will be on penetrating lower-tier cities and enhancing the existing urban structure, with expectations of increased market share in these areas [25] 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 128.59 million, 196.21 million, and 256.47 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [1] - The report highlights that the company's valuation remains attractive, with a PEG ratio of 0.73x for 2025, indicating potential for future growth [1]

Core Insights - Domino's China has achieved a significant milestone with the opening of its 100th store in the Huaxi market, indicating effective implementation of its regional development strategy and substantial progress in its national expansion plan [1] - The company has successfully entered six new markets during the New Year holiday and expanded into additional cities such as Zhenjiang and Shantou during the May Day period, demonstrating its aggressive market expansion strategy [2] Market Expansion - The company has completed the strategic placement of 100 stores in less than three years since entering the region in December 2022, showcasing its commitment to enhancing brand penetration and influence in the Midwest market [1] - Domino's China is focusing on long-term sustainable development by accurately understanding regional consumer characteristics and optimizing store layout strategies [1] Product Innovation - The company is enhancing its product innovation strategy by launching a diverse menu that blends Chinese and Western flavors, including unique offerings like the "Fortune Pizza" and "Wellington Beef Pizza" [3] - The latest product, "Cocoa Lava Cheese Roll," combines Malaysian cocoa powder with French cheese sauce, reflecting the brand's commitment to both international and local product development [3] Marketing Strategies - Domino's China is exploring innovative marketing models through diverse collaborations to enhance brand influence, such as partnering with NetEase Games for an interactive online and offline experience during the Spring Festival [5] - The "芽趣萌生" package launched during Children's Day creatively combines food experiences with planting blind boxes, strengthening emotional connections with young consumers [5] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue its national market expansion while driving brand competitiveness through product innovation and marketing upgrades, focusing on localized strategies to meet the diverse dining needs of Chinese consumers [10]

2025 年 06 月 01 日 门店快速扩张，利润持续释放 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 | 当前股价（港元） | 95.00 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿港元） | 124.3 | | 总股本（百万股） | 130.9 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 130.9 | | 52 周价格范围（港元） | 51.1-125.2 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | 23.3 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 达势股份 恒生指数 相关研究 —达势股份（1405.HK）公司动态研究报告 买入(首次) 投资要点 公司 2025 年计划新开 300 家门店，相关资本开支共计 5.7 亿 元，2025 年初至 3 月 14 日，公司已新开 82 家门店，另有 26 家门店在建，62 家门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese restaurant industry is experiencing a notable recovery driven by a shift in policy focus towards expanding domestic demand, with significant growth in consumer confidence and spending observed in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong restaurant index has rebounded over 20% since April 22, reaching around 787 points, with several restaurant companies like Xiaobai Xiaobai and Jiumaojiu showing positive performance [1]. - In Q1 2024, the offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year-on-year, with the dining sector growing by 14.5% [1]. - The overall revenue of the domestic restaurant industry in 2024 is projected to reach 55,718 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - The restaurant sector has shown double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, with 17 listed restaurant companies reporting an 11% increase in revenue and a 10% increase in profit for 2024 [5][6]. - The coffee and tea segment leads in revenue growth at 22.5%, while traditional Chinese dining (excluding hot pot) and fast food show growth rates of 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively [7]. Group 3: Store Expansion and Market Dynamics - The total number of restaurant stores increased by 20% in 2024, reaching 133,549, with coffee and tea stores growing by 24% [9][11]. - The closure rate of restaurants has risen to 61.2%, indicating a significant industry reshuffle [5]. - The trend of down-market expansion is evident, with 52% of restaurant stores located in third-tier cities and below [13]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Companies like Haidilao are adopting franchise models to penetrate lower-tier markets, with over 70% of franchise applications coming from these areas [14]. - New business models are being explored, such as Kudi Coffee's convenience store concept and Guoquan's community kitchen strategy [15]. - The restaurant sector is expected to stabilize in Q2 2025, with a potential recovery in valuation and fundamentals as seasonal demand increases [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is in a store expansion phase, with strong revenue and profit potential. The scale effect is gradually becoming evident, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts are ongoing. The company plans to open 300 and 350 new stores in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target of approximately 3,000 stores by 2029-2030 [7] - The company has a strong brand and product offering, with over 21,000 global stores as of Q3 2024, leading in both store count and sales, achieving the highest market share globally. The product's convenience aligns with urban consumer trends, and the diverse menu caters to various price points [7] - The membership system is maturing, with 27 million members as of Q1 2025, enhancing customer loyalty and repeat purchase rates [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted to reflect strong growth, with projected revenues of 56.79 billion, 73.27 billion, and 90.51 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31.64%, 29.01%, and 23.53%, respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 0.95 billion, 1.50 billion, and 2.39 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 71.97%, 57.76%, and 59.29% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 4,314 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 5,679 million yuan in 2025, and reaching 7,327 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 55.20 million yuan, growing to 94.92 million yuan in 2025, and 149.75 million yuan in 2026 [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.73 yuan in 2025, and 1.14 yuan in 2026 [8]