SF Holding(SZ:002352) EBSCN·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a 2023 revenue of approximately 258.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 8.23 billion yuan, an increase of 33.4% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan per share for 2023, with a cash dividend rate of approximately 35%, higher than the levels from 2021 to 2022 [2] - The company sold its Fengwang business, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of its express delivery business, with a total of approximately 11.9 billion parcels completed in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, which is below the industry average growth rate of 19.4% [2] - The demand is gradually recovering, with the time-sensitive express business achieving a revenue of approximately 115.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, resulting in a significant increase in profitability, with the express and large parcel segment achieving a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% [2] - The company aims to steadily increase dividends over the next five years, with a planned increase in the cash dividend ratio from the 2023 level [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 down by 6% and 7% respectively, to 10.3 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan, while introducing a new forecast for 2026 at 14.1 billion yuan [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 258.4 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year - 2023 net profit: 8.23 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year - 2023 cash dividend: 0.6 yuan per share, cash dividend rate of 35% [2] Business Segments - Express delivery business volume: 11.9 billion parcels, up 7.5% year-on-year, below industry average - Time-sensitive express revenue: 115.5 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year - Economic express revenue: 25.1 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year - Freight business revenue: 33.1 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year - Supply chain and international business revenue: 60 billion yuan, down 31.7% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Cost Control - Net profit for express and large parcel segment: 8.45 billion yuan, up 55% year-on-year - Gross margin for logistics main business (excluding Kerry Logistics): 13.7%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - Planned increase in cash dividend ratio over the next five years - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with a new forecast for 2026 introduced [2]