SHUANGHUI(SZ:000895) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to factors such as meat prices and inventory issues, but improvements in volume and profit are anticipated in 2024 [3]. - A total dividend of 2.4 billion is proposed for all shareholders, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 48% based on 2023 profits [3]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 60.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.05 billion, down 10.1% year-on-year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 1.46, with forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 adjusted to 1.57, 1.67, and 1.78 respectively [4][5]. - The company’s gross profit margin for meat products improved by 1.24 percentage points to 31.7% in 2023, despite a revenue decline of 2.8% [3][4]. Market and Operational Insights - The report indicates that the company’s slaughtering and breeding operations were impacted by low meat prices, but a structural upgrade is expected to continue, with a forecasted increase in slaughter volume [3]. - The average price of pork is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a projected improvement in profitability for the breeding segment [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 31.30, based on a 20X price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 [3][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 89.63 billion, with a current share price of 25.87 [6].