HDPI(SH:600027) Minsheng Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, with target prices set at 7.35 CNY for A-shares and 5.33 HKD for H-shares [5][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 117.176 billion CNY for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.522 billion CNY, a significant increase of 3789.00% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.15 CNY per share, totaling 1.534 billion CNY, which accounts for 43.65% of the distributable net profit [1][3]. - The growth in installed capacity is expected to mitigate electricity price risks, with fire power revenue projected to continue increasing. In 2023, the company achieved a fire power generation of 200.312 billion kWh, a 1.5% increase year-on-year. Despite a slight decline in the average selling price, fire power revenue is anticipated to grow due to increased installed capacity [1][2]. - Financial expenses have decreased, and impairment losses have narrowed, offsetting the impact of investment income. The financial expense ratio fell by 0.7 percentage points to 3.1%, with total financial expenses decreasing by 4.43 billion CNY, a decline of 11.0% [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49 CNY, 0.61 CNY, and 0.68 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 13.9, 11.0, and 10.0 for A-shares, and 8.0, 6.4, and 5.8 for H-shares [2][10]. - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 2.99% in 2024 and 1.65% in 2025, with net profit growth rates of 30.59% and 9.74% for the same years [10][11]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 223.036 billion CNY in 2023 to 254.042 billion CNY by 2026, with a corresponding decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 62.62% to 61.12% [9][10].