KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11][12][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Guizhou Moutai, demonstrates outstanding price management capabilities, which may effectively smooth out demand fluctuations [2][3]. - The allocation of quotas is becoming more diversified, and discriminatory pricing ensures the stability of the pricing system [2][15]. - The company has ample tools for performance growth, with relatively low pressure to achieve short-term and mid-term performance targets [2][17]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023-2025 are expected to reach 149.5 billion, 171.9 billion, and 197.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +17.2%, +15.0%, and +15.0% respectively [2][18]. - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is forecasted at 73.52 billion, 86.27 billion, and 100.19 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +17.2%, +17.3%, and +16.1% respectively [2][18]. - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 29.1, 24.8, and 21.3 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 [2][18]. Market Dynamics - Short-term fluctuations in the price of Moutai liquor are attributed to seasonal release schedules rather than underlying demand, indicating that the company’s price management strategies remain effective [14]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the value perception of aged liquor to mitigate negative impacts on pricing from social inventory [16]. - The company plans to increase the supply of quotas through various channels, including traditional distributors and e-commerce platforms, to maintain pricing stability [16].