Workflow
2023年年报业绩点评:亚太地区+EPS业务进展顺利,客户群多元化开启新篇章
01316NEXTEER(01316) 光大证券·2024-03-27 16:00

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [2][3] Core Views - 2023 performance fell short of expectations with revenue up 9.6% YoY to 4.2billion,butnetprofitdown36.74.2 billion, but net profit down 36.7% YoY to 37 million, primarily due to UAW strikes, supplier disruptions, restructuring, currency fluctuations, and inflation [2] - Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and EPS business showed strong progress, with APAC revenue up 25.9% YoY to 1.22billion,accountingfor291.22 billion, accounting for 29% of total revenue, and EPS business contributing 68% of total revenue [2] - 2024E EBITDA margin is expected to rise to low double digits, driven by fixed cost reductions and business layout adjustments [2] - Management guidance indicates robust growth momentum from customer diversification and strategic expansion, with a target order book of 6 billion for 2024E [3] - The company has a leading advantage in steer-by-wire, steering system integration, and software design, positioning it well for higher levels of autonomous driving [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 4.207billion,up9.64.207 billion, up 9.6% YoY [4] - 2023 net profit: 37 million, down 36.7% YoY [4] - 2024E revenue forecast: 4.493billion,up6.84.493 billion, up 6.8% YoY [4] - 2024E net profit forecast: 130 million, up 254.6% YoY [4] - 2026E net profit forecast: 222million,up41.1222 million, up 41.1% YoY [4] Business Highlights - APAC region contributed 29% of total revenue in 2023, up 4 percentage points YoY, with 39 out of 55 new projects launched in the region [2] - EPS business accounted for 68% of total revenue in 2023, with new orders for EPS reaching 81% [2] - The company has established five global technology centers and is building a new factory in Changshu, expected to be operational by 2025E [3] Market Data - Current price: HKD 3.57, target price: HKD 4.82 [5] - Total market capitalization: HKD 8.96 billion [6] - 52-week low/high: HKD 3.08/HKD 6.32 [6] Financial Metrics - 2023 EBITDA: 350 million, down 5.0% YoY [2] - 2023 EBITDA margin: 8.8%, down 0.8 percentage points YoY [2] - 2024E EBITDA margin forecast: low double digits [2] - 2023 ROE: 1.87%, down from 3.00% in 2022 [4] - 2024E ROE forecast: 6.05% [4] Strategic Initiatives - Customer diversification: Secured EPS orders from a leading North American EV manufacturer and entered the Chinese OEM market with Li Auto and XPeng [3] - Strategic expansion: Optimized engineering resources globally and initiated construction of a new factory in Changshu, expected to drive future growth [3] Valuation - 2024E P/E: 8.8x [4] - 2025E P/E: 7.3x [4] - 2026E P/E: 5.2x [4]