HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.499 billion CNY in 2023, which aligns with expectations. The total revenue for 2023 was 41.453 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. The net profit margin reached 10.9%, an increase of 7 percentage points [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant recovery in table turnover rates in the second half of 2023, with same-store turnover rates reaching 3.9 times. The overall turnover rate for 2023 was 3.8 times, an increase of 0.8 times compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company has adopted a cautious approach to store expansion, opening only 9 new restaurants in 2023 while closing 32. As of the end of 2023, the total number of restaurants was 1,374 [1][6]. - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 90% in 2023, distributing a final dividend of 0.824 HKD per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 4.8% based on the current stock price [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 41.453 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and a net profit of 4.499 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 227.3% [1][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was 59.1%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year. Employee compensation as a percentage of revenue decreased to 31.5%, while rental and depreciation expenses accounted for 8.0% of revenue, down 4 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.81 CNY, with projected EPS of 0.93 CNY for 2024 and 1.03 CNY for 2025 [2][13]. Future Outlook - The company expects to add a single-digit percentage of new stores in 2024, indicating a cautious approach to expansion [1][11]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 5.174 billion CNY, with growth rates of 15% for 2024, 11% for 2025, and 10% for 2026 [2][11]. - The company is exploring a franchise model to enhance its business strategy, although it will continue to focus primarily on direct operations in the short term [10][11].