Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber (688295) Guohai Securities·2024-03-27 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.259 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.5% to 318 million yuan due to external environmental factors and changes in the supply-demand relationship in the carbon fiber market [4][10] - The carbon fiber prices have stabilized after a decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [5][41] - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with a total carbon fiber output of 19,800 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 86% [4][9] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 651 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 86.4% to 25 million yuan [4][10] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 30.6%, down 17.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.1%, down 16.3 percentage points [4][10] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 244 million yuan in 2023, a decrease of 70.83% year-on-year [4][10] Market Position and Capacity - The company’s total production capacity reached 28,500 tons by the end of 2023, ranking among the top three globally in carbon fiber production [9][41] - The company maintains a leading market share in various applications, including over 50% in pressure vessels and 70% in carbon/carbon thermal fields [9][41] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D personnel by 20.37% in 2023, with R&D investment reaching 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.16% [8][41] - The company has developed high-performance carbon fiber products and successfully applied innovative technologies in various fields [8][41] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 360 million yuan, 536 million yuan, and 744 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 75, 51, and 36 [10][41]