江西基建提振需求，“水泥+”发展战略持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.20 CNY, based on a 18x PE for 2024 [4][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 8.19 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228.59 million CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year decline of 27.40% and 41.10% respectively [4][12]. - The company’s cash dividend for 2023 was 72 million CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 31%, resulting in a current dividend yield of 1.43% [4][12]. - The company is focusing on the "Cement+" development strategy, which aims to extend its industrial chain while maintaining its core cement business [4][11]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 18.43% for 2023, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of higher-margin concrete and aggregate businesses [3][10]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 3.85%, down 1.33 percentage points year-on-year [3][10]. - The company’s total assets decreased from 18.22 billion CNY in 2022 to 17.00 billion CNY in 2023 [21]. Market Dynamics - The company’s sales market is primarily in Jiangxi, where infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year-on-year in 2023, supporting cement demand despite an 8.02% decline in cement production due to real estate sector challenges [2][9]. - The company’s cement sales grew by 1% to 21.37 million tons, with an expected increase in market share [2][9]. - The average selling price of cement decreased by 12 CNY per ton, leading to a 17% decline in cement business revenue to 5.22 billion CNY [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 319 million CNY and 371 million CNY respectively, from previous estimates of 773 million CNY and 898 million CNY [4][12]. - The company aims to enhance its cost advantages through modern logistics development and partnerships with major coal enterprises, as well as expanding into photovoltaic power generation projects [3][4].