HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2]. Core Views - The company has achieved a dividend payout ratio of 90%, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 4.7% for 2023, making it an attractive option for stable returns in the consumer services sector amid valuation pressures [6]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at CNY 5.2 billion and CNY 5.8 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at CNY 6.4 billion, corresponding to EPS of CNY 0.93, CNY 1.03, and CNY 1.1 [6]. - The target price is set at CNY 18.54, approximately HKD 20.43, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of CNY 41.45 billion, a 34% increase, and a net profit of CNY 4.5 billion, a 175% increase, with a net profit margin of 10.9%, up by 5.6 percentage points [6]. - The second half of 2023 saw revenue of CNY 22.6 billion, a 42% increase, and a net profit of CNY 2.24 billion, a 43% increase, with a net profit margin of 10.4% [6]. - The company opened a net of 3 new stores in 2023, with a cautious approach to expansion, reflecting a focus on cost control and efficiency [6]. Operational Insights - The company has seen an increase in table turnover rates across various city tiers, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing increases of 12%, 11%, and 13% respectively, while average customer spending has decreased by 4% [6]. - Cost efficiency has improved significantly, with material costs, employee compensation, and rental expenses showing a favorable trend [6].