美的集团23年报点评：经营向好合同负债新高，分红大幅提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Midea Group reported strong performance in 2023, with Q4 revenue of 81.3 billion yuan (up 10%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 6 billion yuan (up 18%), and a non-recurring profit of 6.1 billion yuan (up 35%) [1] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved revenue of 373.7 billion yuan (up 8%) and a net profit of 33.7 billion yuan (up 14%), with non-recurring profit at 33 billion yuan (up 15%) [1] - The company proposed a significant increase in dividends, with a plan to distribute 30 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 62% (up from 58% last year) [1] Revenue Analysis - The smart home segment is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in Q4 and 4% for the full year 2023 [2] - Domestic sales drove growth in the first half of 2023, while international sales improved in the second half [2] - The air conditioning segment is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year in 2023, with domestic sales expected to grow approximately 10% [2] - The washing machine segment is anticipated to grow by about 10% in 2023, with similar growth rates for domestic and international sales [2] - The home appliance segment is expected to grow by over 10% in 2023, with domestic sales outperforming international sales [2] Profitability Breakdown - The gross margin for Q4 was 28.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by price increases, structural improvements, cost benefits, and favorable exchange rates [2] - The operating expense ratio for Q4 was 20.6%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a slight increase in sales expenses [2] - The net profit margin for Q4 was 7.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, consistent with the trend observed in the previous three quarters [2] Cash Flow - Contract liabilities and other current liabilities reached a historical high in Q4, increasing by 32% year-on-year, indicating strong operational cash flow [2] - The net operating cash flow for Q4 increased by 153% year-on-year, reflecting robust collection performance at year-end [2] Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 405.9 billion yuan, 435.5 billion yuan, and 468.2 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.6%, 7.3%, and 7.5% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 38 billion yuan, 42.3 billion yuan, and 45.5 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.8%, 11.1%, and 7.7% respectively [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be 12, 11, and 10 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with an anticipated dividend yield of 5.3% [2]