大众消费发力，省外拓展有序

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate - A" [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.08 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.77 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the consumer market and has made steady progress in expanding outside its home province [1][3] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, and is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years [3][4] Revenue Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 70.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable increase of 27.6% in Q4, amounting to 18.4 billion yuan [1][3] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment, represented by the Shede series, generated 5.66 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 16% year-on-year [1][3] - The ordinary liquor segment, represented by the Tuo Pai series, achieved 910 million yuan in revenue, with a growth of 16.1% [1][3] Profit Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 74.5%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and new production facilities coming online [1][3] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 25.03%, down 3.05 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Outlook - For 2024, the company plans to continue promoting its key products, Tuo Pai T68 and She Zhi Dao, while solidifying its base market and accelerating its national expansion [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 80.6 billion yuan, 92.8 billion yuan, and 105.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.01 billion yuan, 2.31 billion yuan, and 2.62 billion yuan [3][4][8] Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is 8.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [4][8] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.6% [4][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 6.04 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.8x [4][8] Comparable Company Valuation - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024 is 13x, which is lower than the average P/E of 20x for comparable companies in the same sector [10][11]