2023年年报点评：拓店继续加速，盈利环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Babifood (605338) with a target price of 23.90, down from the previous forecast of 30.00 [17][18]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its store openings and improving profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The future growth is expected to be driven by continued rapid expansion [17][18]. - The financial performance for 2023 is in line with previous forecasts, with a reported net profit of 2.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.04% in revenue [17][18]. - The company has opened 289 new stores in Q4 2023, achieving a total of 5,043 franchise stores, indicating a strong commitment to expansion [17][18]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 1,525 million - 2023A: 1,630 million - 2024E: 1,938 million [10] - Net Profit: - 2022A: 223 million - 2023A: 214 million - 2024E: 261 million [10] - Profitability Ratios: - EBIT margin: 13.6% in 2022A, expected to be 12.7% in 2024E [10]. - Net profit margin: 14.6% in 2022A, expected to be 13.5% in 2024E [10]. - Growth Rates: - Revenue growth rate: 10.9% in 2022A, 6.9% in 2023A, and projected 18.8% in 2024E [10]. - Net profit growth rate: -29.1% in 2022A, -4.0% in 2023A, and projected 22.1% in 2024E [10]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings, particularly in new regions and through new product launches [17][18]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 26.3% in 2023A to 26.7% in 2024E [10]. Market Position - Babifood operates primarily in the frozen food sector, specializing in Chinese-style pastries, with a diverse product range including buns, steamed bread, and porridge [8][10]. - The company is positioned within the essential consumer goods industry, specifically in the food and beverage sector [8].