Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$9.78, down from a previous target of HK$12.09 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue and net profit at RMB 314.5 billion and RMB 60.7 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1.7% and a decline of 3.6% [1][8]. - Continuous investment in R&D is expected to drive the growth of innovative drugs, which will become a key growth point for the company's revenue [1][12]. - The company anticipates launching 50 innovative drugs over the next five years, which will provide ongoing momentum for revenue growth [1][12]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 of 6.3% and 9.7%, respectively [1][12]. Revenue Structure and Growth - The company's revenue from traditional pharmaceuticals reached RMB 256.4 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1][8]. - Revenue from the central nervous system segment was RMB 90.9 billion, growing by 12.1% year-on-year, while the respiratory system segment saw a significant increase of 124% to RMB 15.6 billion due to strong market demand [1][8]. - Revenue from oncology and cardiovascular segments declined by 16.4% and 15.5%, respectively, due to price reductions from centralized procurement [1][8]. - The report projects revenue growth rates for traditional pharmaceuticals from 2024 to 2026 to be 3.3%, 1.5%, and -1.5%, respectively [1][12]. Raw Materials and Functional Foods - The report indicates that revenue from raw materials and functional foods is expected to grow in 2024, with forecasts of 8.9% and 10% year-on-year growth, respectively [1][12]. - The company experienced a 23.7% decline in VC revenue in 2023 due to price drops, while functional food revenue fell by 8.9% primarily due to lower caffeine prices [1][12]. Financial Projections - The report provides updated financial projections, with 2024 revenue estimated at RMB 32,839 million, down 12% from previous estimates [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 0.53, reflecting an 18% decrease from earlier forecasts [10][12]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately US$9.69 billion, with a current share price of HK$6.34, indicating a potential upside of 54% to the target price [3][12].
创新药推动成药业务收入稳定增长，原料药价格有望企稳