NJTC(SH:601975) Guohai Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.55% in 2023, despite a 24.22% decline in average TCE levels [2] - The current freight rates remain at historically high levels, indicating that the decline is not cyclical but rather a result of market dynamics [2] - The supply side of the market is under pressure due to aging vessels and environmental regulations, while demand for refined oil trade in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow [2][8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 6.985 billion, 7.183 billion, and 7.249 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.045 billion, 2.105 billion, and 2.133 billion yuan [2][20] - The company is projected to maintain a P/E ratio of approximately 8, 7, and 7 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19% in 2024, decreasing to 14% by 2026 [20] Market Dynamics - The MR vessel order book represents only 10% of the total DWT, indicating tight supply conditions [8] - The aging fleet poses significant challenges, with 10% of vessels over 20 years old and 27% between 15-19 years old, which will be impacted by upcoming carbon intensity regulations [8] - The refined oil trade volume in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow by 3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, supporting sustained market demand [8]