HDPI(SH:600027) Soochow Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 117.18 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3789% year-on-year [2][3] - The cash dividend ratio for 2023 was 43.65%, indicating a strong return to shareholders [3] - The report anticipates further recovery in the profitability of the thermal power industry, driven by a decline in coal prices and reduced capital expenditures in the coal power sector [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in coal prices, with projections indicating a drop of 100-200 yuan/ton to a price range of 800-900 yuan/ton in 2024 [3] - The company’s electricity generation increased by 1.21% year-on-year, while the average electricity price decreased by 0.44% [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 6.44 billion yuan and 7.32 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected net profit of 8.25 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42.40%, 13.62%, and 12.79% [4] - The report estimates the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to be 11, 9, and 8 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 119.20 billion yuan in 2024 to 126.93 billion yuan in 2026 [4]