Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 华福证券·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. with a target price of 18.61 CNY, indicating an expected increase of over 20% in the stock price within the next six months [3][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 42.67 billion CNY for 2023, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.96 billion CNY, down 13.4% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 12.91 billion CNY, an increase of 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 1.45 billion CNY, up 46.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The decline in performance for 2023 was attributed to reduced production during the dry season, impacting electrolytic aluminum output. The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum was 18,700 CNY per ton, down 6.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report forecasts a recovery in aluminum prices for 2024-2026, with expected prices of 19,000 CNY, 20,000 CNY, and 21,000 CNY per ton respectively, leading to projected net profits of 4.0 billion CNY, 5.5 billion CNY, and 7.0 billion CNY for those years [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 42.67 billion CNY, with a projected revenue growth of 6% in 2024, followed by 5% in 2025 and 2026 [2][8]. - The net profit for 2023 was 3.96 billion CNY, with a slight increase expected to 4.03 billion CNY in 2024, and significant growth projected in subsequent years [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.14 CNY, with forecasts of 1.16 CNY in 2024, 1.59 CNY in 2025, and 2.01 CNY in 2026 [2][8]. Market Data - The current stock price is 13.62 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 47.23 billion CNY [3][4]. - The company has a total share capital of 3,468 million shares and a debt-to-equity ratio of 25.60% [3][4].