R&T(002790) 申万宏源·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected market value of 60 billion yuan based on a 21x PE for 2024, indicating a 25% upside potential [27][144]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to developing its own brand since 2021, benefiting from two rounds of alpha market performance. The first round occurred in late 2021, driven by the focus on its own brand, while the second round was during the 2023 618 shopping festival, where the company's online performance was outstanding [7][25][66]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, leveraging its manufacturing advantages and expanding its offline presence through a "store-in-store" model, which is anticipated to drive a new round of alpha performance starting in 2024 [42][126]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 2,179 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2%. For 2024 and 2025, revenue is projected to reach 2,836 million yuan and 3,545 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 30.1% and 25.0% [4][178]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 222 million yuan in 2023, with growth rates of 5.2%, 29.0%, and 24.9% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [4][106][178]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 28.5% for the forecasted years [177]. Market Dynamics - The smart toilet market is projected to grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% from 2024 to 2026, driven by increasing penetration rates and the shift towards smart home products [41][74]. - The company is positioned well within the market, with a focus on high cost-performance products and a successful online sales strategy, particularly on platforms like Douyin [29][131]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company has expanded its product line from water fittings to a full supply chain for smart toilets, leveraging its experience in OEM for major brands to create competitive products [126][148]. - The "store-in-store" model allows for lower operational costs and inventory management, which is expected to enhance the company's offline sales capabilities significantly [158][160]. - The company is also entering the home appliance channel, which aligns well with the trends in the renovation of existing homes, further opening growth opportunities [162][164].