CMES(SH:601872) Guoxin Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8][11] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 25.88 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.84 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [2][4] - The oil tanker business performed exceptionally well, achieving a gross profit of 3.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 249.2% [2][8] - The dry bulk shipping segment faced challenges in 2023, with an average BDI index of 1378.4, down 28.7% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of only 900 million yuan, a decline of 58.4% [8] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from approximately 30% to 40%, which is expected to support its valuation [2][8] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024 are estimated at 30.67 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.5% increase from 2023 [2][9] - Net profit is expected to rise to 6.84 billion yuan in 2024, a 41.4% increase compared to 2023 [2][9] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 9.2 for 2024, decreasing to 7.9 by 2026 [2][9] - The ROE is forecasted to improve to 16.7% in 2024, with a gradual decline to 15.8% by 2026 [2][9]