XINJI ENERGY(601918) Haitong Securities·2024-03-28 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [18]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance in coal and electricity operations, with a focus on transforming into a new energy base in northern Anhui [1]. - The company plans to build a new integrated coal and electricity base, which is expected to enhance coal production capacity and power generation installations [16]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 23.4 billion, 23.6 billion, and 31.1 billion CNY respectively, with an EPS of 0.90, 0.91, and 1.20 CNY [16]. Financial Summary - Revenue: The company reported a revenue of 12,845 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a slight decline to 12,716 million CNY, followed by 12,531 million CNY in 2025, and a significant increase to 14,735 million CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - Net Profit: The net profit for 2023 is 2,109 million CNY, with a growth of 1.6% year-on-year. The projections for 2024 and 2025 are 2,336 million CNY and 2,360 million CNY respectively, with a notable increase to 3,114 million CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - EPS: The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.81 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.90 CNY in 2024, 0.91 CNY in 2025, and reaching 1.20 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin is projected to improve from 39.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [2][17]. - Return on Equity: The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease slightly from 15.6% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025, before recovering to 16.4% in 2026 [2][17]. Business Segment Analysis - Coal Business: The coal production and sales volume for 2023 were 1,937 million tons and 1,969 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 8.7%. The average selling price for coal was 551 CNY per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [16]. - Electricity Generation: The company generated 103.93 billion kWh of electricity in 2023, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year. However, the fourth quarter saw a recovery in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [16]. Valuation - The company is valued based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10-12 times for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 9.02 to 10.82 CNY per share [16].