23Q4营收增速转正，期待24年需求回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 25.00 CNY, maintaining the rating [8][26]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of revenue recovery in Q4 2023, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.7%, indicating a positive demand trend for 2024 [6][22]. - The overall revenue for 2023 was 823 million CNY, a decrease of 12.95% year-on-year, primarily due to weak overseas demand and inventory destocking by downstream customers [22]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand and the upcoming Paris Olympics, which may boost the demand for sports goods [21][23]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 33.84%, a decline of 2.77 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross profit margin at 30.81%, down 8.51 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 15.57%, down 6.51 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 showing a net profit margin of -1.46%, a decline of 9.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 240 million CNY in 2023, an increase of 5.26% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2023, the revenue from air beds, bags, and cushions was 515 million CNY, 156 million CNY, and 60 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 22.5%, and a decline of 19.3% [22]. - The domestic and overseas sales revenue for 2023 decreased by 29.2% and 7.6% respectively, amounting to 171 million CNY and 650 million CNY [22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to return to growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 972 million CNY, 1.129 billion CNY, and 1.309 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 16.1%, and 15.9% respectively [26]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 181 million CNY, with an expected PE ratio of 14.9x [26].