SCIE(SH:600546) Minsheng Securities·2024-03-29 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.260 billion yuan, down 38.53% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in coal prices and increased management expenses in Q4 2023 impacted profitability, but profitability is expected to improve in 2024 as new mines ramp up production [2]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased by 9.34 percentage points to 49.45% by the end of 2023, with interest-bearing debt down 22.9% to 5.549 billion yuan [2]. - A cash dividend of 0.65 yuan per share (including tax) is proposed, with a payout ratio of 30.25% and a dividend yield of 3.79% [2]. - Coal production and sales decreased year-on-year, with self-produced coal output at 38.9837 million tons, down 3.92%, and sales at 34.8599 million tons, down 5.68% [2]. - The company plans to produce no less than 33 million tons of coal in 2024, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 3.956 billion, 5.067 billion, and 5.358 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 8.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.28%, and a net profit of 264 million yuan, down 82.84% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal in 2023 was 682.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 58.85%, down 7.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2024 to 2026 [2]. Production and Sales - The company’s coal trade volume increased by 4.29% year-on-year, with a total of 17.6454 million tons sold in 2023 [2]. - The unit selling price for traded coal was 731.7 yuan per ton, a decrease of 33.5% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects to improve profitability in 2024 as new mines begin to contribute to production [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2.00, 2.56, and 2.70 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9, 7, and 6 [2][3].