HAIDILAO(06862) 东吴证券·2024-03-29 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in dividend payout ratio [2] - Continuous optimization of store structure, with a rebound in table turnover rate in H2 2023 [3] - Steady improvement in gross margin, with rising labor costs in H2 2023 [3] - Expansion and same-store sales growth expected in 2024, with new brands opening a second growth curve [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: RMB 41.45 billion (yoy +33.6%), with Haidilao restaurant revenue at RMB 39.27 billion (yoy +35.7%) [2] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 4.5 billion (yoy +174.6%), with a net profit margin of 10.9% [2] - 2023 dividend payout ratio increased by 50 percentage points to 92.6%, with total dividends of RMB 4.05 billion [2] - 2023 gross margin: 59.1% (yoy +0.7 percentage points) [3] - 2023 table turnover rate: 3.8 times/day, with H2 2023 reaching 4.2 times/day (yoy +0.9 times) [3] Store Operations - Total stores at the end of 2023: 1,374 (net increase of 3 stores) [3] - Average customer spending in 2023: RMB 99.1 (yoy -5.5%) [3] - Same-store sales growth in 2023: 27.7%, with same-store table turnover rate at 3.9 times/day (yoy +30%) [3] - Revenue growth by region: Tier 1 cities +39.6%, Tier 2 cities +37.7%, Tier 3 and below +32.2%, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan +32.7% [3] Future Outlook - 2024 table turnover rate expected to exceed 4 times/day, with higher rates in Tier 1 cities and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [3] - 2024 plan to add 70-80 new stores (including 20 franchise stores) [3] - New brands such as "Hi Lao," "Miao Shixiong," and "Five Grains Three Meals" to continue expansion [3] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast adjusted to RMB 5.1/5.7/6.2 billion, with a 3-year forward P/E of 17/16/14x [4] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 17.66 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 11.94/23.95 [5] - Price-to-book ratio: 7.74x [5] - Market capitalization: HKD 98.44 billion [5] Financial Ratios - 2023 EPS: RMB 0.81, 2024E: RMB 0.92, 2025E: RMB 1.02, 2026E: RMB 1.11 [9] - 2023 ROE: 39.03%, 2024E: 30.79%, 2025E: 25.47%, 2026E: 21.72% [9] - 2023 net profit margin: 10.84%, 2024E: 10.85%, 2025E: 11.05%, 2026E: 11.20% [9]