2023年年报点评：行业景气有所承压，荆州基地投产贡献增量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [2][3] - The traditional coal chemical sector showed relatively better profitability in urea, while acetic acid and organic amines faced pressure [2] - The new energy and new materials segment's revenue share continues to rise, with mixed profitability across products [2] - The successful launch of the Jingzhou Phase I project in November 2023 contributed an estimated net profit of 155 million yuan [2] - The average price of thermal coal decreased to 850 yuan per ton as of March 28, 2024, down approximately 76 yuan from the beginning of the year, indicating potential stabilization in product price differentials [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, and a diluted EPS of 1.68 yuan [2][3] - The forecast for 2024-2026 shows an expected net profit of 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, 5.47 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.78 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.41, 10.16, and 8.19 [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid was 5.7 billion, 2.7 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, contributing 21%, 10%, and 8% to total revenue [2] - The new materials segment generated 15.5 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 57% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 17% [2] Market Conditions - The urea market exhibited a V-shaped recovery in 2023, with an average gross profit of 515 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year-on-year [2] - The average gross profit for DMF and acetic acid was 279 yuan and 413 yuan per ton respectively, both showing significant year-on-year declines [2] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 4.5 billion and 5.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on demand recovery [2] - The overall market conditions are expected to stabilize as raw material costs decrease, potentially improving industry profitability [2]