SCIE(SH:600546) Guohai Securities·2024-03-29 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with operating income at 37.37 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.26 billion yuan, down 38.5% year-on-year [2][4] - The fourth quarter performance was impacted by increased operating costs and management expenses, alongside higher impairment losses and a high tax rate [3][4] - The company has reduced its debt levels significantly, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 49.45% by the end of 2023, down 9.21 percentage points from the end of 2022 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company produced 38.98 million tons of coal, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and sold 52.51 million tons, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 683 yuan/ton, down 16.6% year-on-year, with significant price drops in both thermal and metallurgical coal [3][4] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.29 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.25% and a dividend yield of 3.8% [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 4.05 billion, 4.20 billion, and 4.31 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.04, 2.12, and 2.17 yuan [5][6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 8.40 for 2024, 8.10 for 2025, and 7.89 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [6]