Roborock(SH:688169) Minsheng Securities·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected relative benchmark index growth of over 15% [1][4] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.05 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [1] - Overseas revenue grew significantly in 2023, driven by increased consumer demand and improved brand recognition, with the company successfully entering the retail giant Target's channels [1] - Domestic market share continued to rise, with online retail sales increasing by 16.8% in 2023, and the company launched new products in the RMB 3,000 price segment to boost sales [1] - Gross margin improved significantly, rising by 5.9 percentage points, primarily due to higher-margin export revenue and product structure upgrades [1] - The company's net profit margin increased by 5.9 percentage points to 23.7% in 2023, driven by improved operational efficiency [1] - The global robotic vacuum cleaner market is expected to maintain high growth potential, with the company well-positioned to expand its market share globally [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 8.654 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, with projected revenue growth of 21.0%, 18.6%, and 18.6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 17.8%, 15.7%, and 19.3% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching RMB 2.416 billion, RMB 2.795 billion, and RMB 3.335 billion, respectively [1][2] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 54% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit margins of 23.08%, 22.52%, and 22.66% for the same period [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, with projections of 18.09%, 17.85%, and 18.10% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Market and Competitive Position - The company has a competitive advantage in product strength, supply chain, and innovation speed, with its global market share increasing from 1% in 2017 to 9% in 2020 [1] - The domestic robotic vacuum cleaner market is dominated by leading companies such as Roborock and Ecovacs, with their combined global market share rising from 12% in 2017 to 26% in 2020 [1] - The company's overseas channel development and brand influence are expected to continue improving, supporting further market share growth [1] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19x for 2024, 16x for 2025, and 14x for 2026, indicating attractive valuation levels [1] - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of the robotic vacuum cleaner market and the company's ability to expand its global market share, supporting the "Recommend" rating [1]