Fuling Zhacai(002507) 华鑫证券·2024-03-29 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company faces pressure from market demand, but its dual expansion strategy supports medium to long-term growth [1] - Cost increases have impacted profitability, but efficiency in expense allocation is expected to improve [1] - Product category expansion is progressing, with e-commerce and catering channels gaining traction [1] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in gross margin in 2024 due to raw material price stabilization and increased procurement of semi-finished products [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 2.45 billion yuan (-4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 827 million yuan (-8% YoY) [1] - Q4 2023 revenue was 498 million yuan (-1% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 167 million yuan (-17% YoY) [1] - Gross margin in 2023 was 50.72%, down 2 percentage points YoY, mainly due to rising raw material prices and the launch of lower-priced bulk products [1] - Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio in 2023 were 13.37% and 3.59%, respectively, with sales expenses decreasing due to reduced advertising and optimized expense structure [1] Product and Channel Development - In 2023, pickled vegetable revenue was 2.076 billion yuan (-5% YoY), accounting for a decreased proportion of total revenue, while other products, especially sauces, saw significant growth [1] - Direct sales revenue increased by 28% YoY, driven by e-commerce, while catering channels showed growth potential, with seasoning product shipments exceeding 80 million yuan (+30% YoY) [1] - The number of distributors increased by 112 to 3,239 by the end of 2023, supporting cross-channel expansion [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 2.757 billion yuan in 2024 (+12.5% YoY), 3.052 billion yuan in 2025 (+10.7% YoY), and 3.336 billion yuan in 2026 (+9.3% YoY) [13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 923 million yuan in 2024 (+11.7% YoY), 1.029 billion yuan in 2025 (+11.5% YoY), and 1.139 billion yuan in 2026 (+10.7% YoY) [13] - EPS is projected to be 0.80 yuan in 2024, 0.89 yuan in 2025, and 0.99 yuan in 2026, with a current PE ratio of 17x for 2024 [3][13] Strategic Focus - The company continues to implement its "dual-wheel drive" strategy, focusing on consolidating its core pickled vegetable business while expanding into new product categories and channels [3]