CBC(SH:600132) Huaxin Securities·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.815 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 5.53% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.337 billion yuan, up 5.78% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.8 yuan per 10 shares, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 4.3%, which supports the stock price [2] - The company is expected to experience stable growth in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 4.93% in beer sales volume in 2023 [2] - The average price per ton of beer in 2023 was 4,942.40 yuan per thousand liters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.57% [2] - Short-term profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards due to external economic pressures, with expected EPS for 2024 and 2025 at 2.98 yuan and 3.30 yuan, respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 49.15% for the entire year of 2023, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The sales expense ratio for 2023 was 17.10%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 3.34%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points [2] - The company’s total market capitalization is 31.2 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 64.47 yuan [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from high-end beer (priced at 8 yuan and above) was 8.855 billion yuan, up 5.18% year-on-year; mainstream beer (priced between 4-8 yuan) generated 5.297 billion yuan, up 5.64%; and economy beer (priced below 4 yuan) brought in 290 million yuan, up 10.06% [2] - Revenue from different regions showed that the southern region generated 4.334 billion yuan, up 13.74%, while the central region had 6.084 billion yuan, up 3.01%, and the northwest region had 4.023 billion yuan, up 1.10% [2] Profit Forecasts - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 15.731 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, and for 2025, it is expected to reach 16.597 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.440 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 7.7%, and 1.599 billion yuan in 2025, with an 11.0% growth rate [3] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.98 yuan in 2024 and 3.30 yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.7 and 19.5 times [2][3]