公司简评报告：单季度业绩继续回升，内蒙项目投产渐行渐近

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.34% [5] - The increase in revenue was driven by the sales volume of polyolefins and coke, but profit declined due to lower prices and profitability [5] - The company has increased its polyolefin production capacity by 75% to 2.1 million tons per year following the commissioning of new facilities [5] - The industry downturn may be over, and the company's cost advantage in coal-based olefins could lead to a recovery in profitability [5] - Capital expenditures are expected to continue growing, with a projected 12.842 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.438 billion yuan, 11.113 billion yuan, and 14.199 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.52, and 1.94 yuan [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 29.136 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.651 billion yuan [6] - The sales volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke were 8.325 million tons, 7.528 million tons, and 6.9755 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18.24%, 14.10%, and 12.26% [5] - The average selling prices for polyethylene, polypropylene, and coke decreased by 5.09%, 8.60%, and 22.86%, respectively [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projections of 36.621 billion yuan in 2024, 51.792 billion yuan in 2025, and 61.402 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - The anticipated net profit growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.6%, 49.4%, and 27.8%, respectively [6] - The company’s capital expenditures are projected to support its growth trajectory, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to profit growth [5]