行业景气基本触底，龙头成长穿越周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 33.3 CNY based on a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][4]. Core Views - The basic chemical commodity sector is experiencing a downturn, with overall demand weakening and new production capacities being released. The prices of the company's main products are currently at low levels, with urea and octanol being the only products with relatively high price differentials [1]. - The launch of the Jingzhou project opens up long-term growth opportunities for the company, with significant investments in various chemical production projects that are expected to enhance cost and scale advantages [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical commodity sector has seen a continuous decline since peaking in the first half of 2022, with current prices for key products like urea, DMF, and acetic acid at 77%, 27%, and 48% of their long-term price levels, respectively [1]. - Concerns exist regarding the potential impact of declining market conditions on the company's performance, particularly for urea and octanol, which contribute approximately 30% and 10% to the company's gross profit [1]. Financial Forecast - Due to the overall decline in product and raw material prices, the company's revenue and profit margins are expected to decrease. The projected EPS for 2023-2025 is 1.85, 2.22, and 2.60 CNY, respectively [2]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to be 29,675 million CNY in 2023, with a slight decline from 30,245 million CNY in 2022, followed by growth to 35,357 million CNY in 2024 and 41,183 million CNY in 2025 [3]. Project Developments - The Jingzhou project, with an investment exceeding 10 billion CNY, has entered trial production, which includes the production of urea, acetic acid, DMF, and other chemicals. This project is expected to solidify the company's competitive position and support future product expansions [1]. - The second phase of the Jingzhou project is anticipated to further enhance the company's growth potential, with additional investments planned for biodegradable materials and other chemical products [1].