M&G(603899) 国金证券·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chenguang Stationery (603899 SH) [3] Core Views - Traditional core business shows steady recovery with optimized offline channel operations and accelerated online distribution [3] - Jiumu business demonstrates strong growth with revenue increasing by 51% YoY in 2023, becoming a new growth driver [3] - Kelipu business achieves robust performance with 21 8% YoY revenue growth in 2023, driven by expansion in government and financial clients [3] - Chenguang Technology continues to expand its presence on new e-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou, with revenue growing 30% YoY in 2023 [3] - The company is actively exploring overseas markets in Africa and Southeast Asia to drive future growth [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached RMB 23 35 billion, up 16 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 53 billion, up 19 1% YoY [3] - Gross margin for writing instruments increased by 2 4 percentage points to 41 9% in 2023 [3] - Jiumu business achieved net profit of RMB 22 91 million in 2023, with a net profit margin of 1 7% [3] - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 82 billion, RMB 2 14 billion, and RMB 2 51 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [3] Business Segments - Traditional core business generated RMB 9 14 billion in revenue in 2023, up 8% YoY, with writing instruments, student supplies, and office supplies contributing RMB 2 27 billion, RMB 3 47 billion, and RMB 3 49 billion, respectively [3] - Kelipu business achieved revenue of RMB 13 31 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 7 2% and net margin of 3% [3] - Retail stores expanded to 659 by the end of 2023, with Jiumu stores accounting for 618 locations [3] Valuation - The current stock price implies a PE ratio of 18x, 16x, and 13x for 2024-2026, respectively [3] - The report highlights the company's strong channel moat and growth potential in new businesses as key valuation drivers [3]