Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [20][21]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in its food and restaurant segments, particularly in mooncake sales and restaurant recovery, which are expected to drive stable earnings growth [6][19]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 19.17%, with a net profit of 550 million yuan, up 5.21% year-on-year [21]. - The forecast for 2024 includes a revenue estimate of 5.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 663 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.4% and 20.5% respectively [24]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for Q4 2023 was 1.025 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 32.7%, while the net profit for the same period was 59 million yuan, up 11.1% [21]. - The mooncake business saw a revenue increase of 9.9% in 2023, with Q4 revenue growing by 45.5% [22]. - The restaurant business experienced a significant recovery, with a revenue increase of 65.7% in 2023 and 138% in Q4 [22]. - The gross profit margin improved to 32.66% in Q4 2023, an increase of 4.45 percentage points year-on-year [23]. Business Segment Analysis - The company has opened 43 direct-operated stores, including 26 in Guangzhou, and expanded its market presence in East China and other provinces [22]. - Online sales channels contributed to a 21.7% increase in revenue, indicating a successful digital strategy [22]. - The company plans to continue focusing on the domestic market while expanding into new regions, which is expected to support steady revenue growth in 2024 [22]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 679 million yuan for 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.17 yuan [21][24]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease to 15.0 in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [24].