CBC(SH:600132) Huaan Securities·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that mainstream pricing is driving growth, and the production capacity in the southern region is expected to alleviate supply constraints [2] - The company reported a revenue of 17.86 billion in Q4 2023, a decrease of 3.8%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.07 billion compared to 0.81 billion in the same period last year [2] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 148.15 billion, an increase of 5.5%, and a net profit of 13.37 billion, up by 5.8% [2] - The company declared a dividend of 13.55 billion for 2023, with a payout ratio of 101% [2] Revenue Analysis - The report indicates a slowdown in revenue growth, but international and southern regions showed strong performance [2] - In 2023, the total sales volume reached 3 million tons, an increase of 4.9%, with an average price of 4,818 yuan per ton, up by 0.5% [2] - The revenue breakdown by price segment shows high-end, mainstream, and economy segments generating 8.9 billion, 5.3 billion, and 0.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 5.6%, and 10.1% [2] - The report notes that the mainstream price segment is the main driver of volume growth, while international brands outperformed local brands [2] Profitability Analysis - The report mentions an increase in costs, with a gross margin of 49.1% in 2023, down by 1.3 percentage points due to a 3.2% rise in ton costs [2] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 9.02%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, despite an increase in sales expenses [2] - The report anticipates continued structural upgrades in 2024, with expectations of stable total costs due to a decrease in barley costs and the production launch of the Foshan factory in Q2 2024 [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 158 billion, 166 billion, and 176 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 5.3%, and 5.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 15 billion, 16 billion, and 18 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 11.0%, 10.0%, and 7.5% [3] - The report indicates that the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21, 19, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, suggesting that the valuation is at a historically low level [2][3]