Q4产品价差短期回落，荆州基地投产贡献业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.27%. However, the net profit for Q4 was 649 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.09% [1] - The company benefited from the commissioning of the Jingzhou base, which contributed to performance. The production volumes of main products increased significantly, although the price spread decreased, leading to a decline in gross profit margin [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic chemical industry, leveraging its gasification platform to develop an integrated operational model with strong cost control advantages. The new capacity projects are expected to drive growth, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 4.536 billion, 5.497 billion, and 6.310 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.8%, 21.2%, and 14.8% respectively [1][3] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 20.9%, which is expected to decrease to 20.0% in 2024 and then increase to 21.7% and 22.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.4% in 2023, increasing to 13.6% in 2024 and stabilizing around 13.9% in 2026 [3][5] - The company’s operating cash flow is projected to be 4.715 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 11.119 billion yuan by 2026. The net profit is expected to rise from 4.564 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.360 billion yuan in 2026 [4][5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 44.051 billion yuan in 2023 to 66.562 billion yuan in 2026, with a corresponding increase in total liabilities from 13.614 billion yuan to 19.603 billion yuan [4][5]