AECC AEC(000738) 光大证券·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its position as the leading domestic supplier of aero-engine control systems and its potential to benefit from the mass production of high-generation domestic engines and subsequent maintenance services [3][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.74%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 730 million yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year [2] - The main business, aero-engine and gas turbine control systems, grew steadily, contributing 4.69 billion yuan in revenue, a 10.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 28.6%, up 0.5 percentage points [3] - International cooperation business saw a significant recovery, with revenue increasing by 47.0% to 350 million yuan, although the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 17.4% [3] - Non-aviation products and other businesses experienced a decline, with revenue dropping by 36.1% to 280 million yuan due to reduced orders from downstream customers, and the gross margin fell by 8.6 percentage points to 21.2% [3] Subsidiary Performance - Among the four major subsidiaries, Beijing Hangke performed well, with revenue increasing by 12.8% to 860 million yuan and net profit rising by 26.1% to 110 million yuan [3] - Hangfa Xikong achieved revenue of 2.33 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, a 6.5% increase [3] - Hangfa Honglin reported revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase, and net profit of 270 million yuan, up 9.4% [3] - Changchun Control saw revenue grow by 6.0% to 370 million yuan, with net profit increasing by 10.75% to 20.88 million yuan [3] Fundraising and Project Adjustments - The company adjusted its 2021 non-public fundraising project, indicating a positive trend in the aero-engine industry, with adjustments made to meet incremental demand for production capacity [3] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts a net profit attributable to the parent company of 870 million yuan in 2024, 1.02 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.18 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.66 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.90 yuan, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27x for 2024, 23x for 2025, and 20x for 2026 [3] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 23.87 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.315 billion shares [6] - The stock's price range over the past year was between 13.13 yuan and 24.75 yuan, with a 3-month turnover rate of 43.37% [6] Financial Statements - The company's total assets in 2023 were 15.78 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 3.57 billion yuan, resulting in a shareholder equity of 12.20 billion yuan [8] - The operating cash flow in 2023 was 983 million yuan, with a net cash flow of 403 million yuan [8] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The gross margin in 2023 was 27.5%, with an EBITDA margin of 24.4% and an EBIT margin of 15.2% [8] - The ROE (diluted) for 2023 was 6.1%, with a forecasted increase to 7.0% in 2024 and 8.1% in 2026 [8] - The PE ratio for 2023 was 33x, with a PB ratio of 2.0x [8]