GED(000539) Xinda Securities·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 59.71 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.975 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 14.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.31%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.67% due to a 1.29 billion yuan impairment provision, resulting in a net loss of 0.752 billion yuan [1]. - The company is expected to face pressure from declining electricity prices in 2024, despite benefiting from a significant increase in electricity prices in 2023 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 59.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.38% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 0.975 billion yuan, showing a significant recovery from a loss of 2.98 billion yuan in 2022 [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 14.6% in 2023 from -0.4% in 2022 [3]. Electricity Generation and Demand - The company has been expanding its coal-fired and gas-fired power projects, with a total installed capacity of 12.67 million kilowatts under construction in 2023 [1]. - The total electricity generation for coal-fired power was 114.15 billion kWh in 2023, an increase of 5.03% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s electricity sales volume is expected to continue to grow due to increasing demand in Guangdong [1]. Pricing and Cost Structure - The average electricity price for coal-fired power in 2023 was 0.58 yuan per kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.41% [1]. - The company’s fuel costs decreased significantly in 2023, with total fuel costs amounting to 40.27 billion yuan, down 6.90% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to further control costs and optimize its fuel procurement strategy to mitigate the impact of declining electricity prices in 2024 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.025 billion yuan, 2.783 billion yuan, and 3.445 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 107.8%, 37.4%, and 23.8% [2][3]. - The company aims to increase its renewable energy capacity significantly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a target of 14 million kilowatts of new installed capacity [2].