SCIE(SH:600546) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by a decline in both volume and price, but there is potential for increased dividends in the future [5] - The company reported a revenue of 37.37 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.26 billion yuan, down 38.5% year-on-year [5] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 4.12 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 5.45 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.2%, +15.9%, and +14.0% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a coal production of 38.98 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 52.51 million tons, down 2.5% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 683 yuan per ton, down 7.4% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 43.6% to 281 yuan [5] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend strategy, with a proposed cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2023, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30.3% [5] Capacity and Growth - The company is progressing well in releasing advanced production capacity, with a successful completion of 10 million tons/year capacity increase and ongoing work for an additional 16 million tons/year [5] - The company aims to increase the dividend payout ratio to at least 60% of the distributable profits for 2024-2026, contingent on certain conditions being met [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.08 yuan, 2.41 yuan, and 2.75 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.8, 6.8, and 5.9 [6][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 33.1% in 2023 to 21.3% by 2026 [6][7]