Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 国投证券·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a 6-month target price of 18.4 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - The company achieved its best quarterly performance in Q4 2023, with a revenue of 12.91 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.76%. The net profit for Q4 was 1.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80.25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46.54% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming flood season, which will likely enhance production capacity. The company has a low debt ratio of 25.6% as of the end of 2023, down 9.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a high return on equity (ROE) of 15.37% [7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 47.34 billion CNY, 49.27 billion CNY, and 50.92 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 4.61 billion CNY, 4.97 billion CNY, and 5.06 billion CNY [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 42.67 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.96%, and a net profit of 3.96 billion CNY, down 13.41% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 3.93 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 15.81%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.21%, up 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Production and Pricing - The company produced 1.43 million tons of alumina, 0.79 million tons of carbon products, 2.40 million tons of primary aluminum, and 1.23 million tons of aluminum alloys and processed products in 2023 [1]. - The average aluminum price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) for 2023 was 18,624.9 CNY per ton, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year [1]. Dividend Policy - The profit distribution plan for 2023 proposes a cash dividend of 2.3 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 798 million CNY, which accounts for 20.31% of the net profit [2].