wsdl(SH:600995) Soochow Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to the impact of the new pumped storage pricing policy and reduced water inflow affecting peak regulation hydropower [3] - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 5.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion yuan, down 39.05% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is actively developing new energy storage technologies and has seen significant growth in its new energy storage segment [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (million yuan): - 2022A: 8,261 - 2023A: 5,630 - 2024E: 6,046 - 2025E: 7,419 - 2026E: 8,448 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -31.85% - 2024E: 7.40% - 2025E: 22.70% - 2026E: 13.87% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): - 2022A: 1,663 - 2023A: 1,014 - 2024E: 1,256 - 2025E: 1,628 - 2026E: 1,838 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -39.05% - 2024E: 23.94% - 2025E: 29.62% - 2026E: 12.88% [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Peak regulation hydropower revenue in 2023 was 1.05 billion yuan, down 44.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 40.74% [3] - Pumped storage revenue in 2023 was 4.43 billion yuan, down 3.83% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.66% [3] - New energy storage revenue in 2023 was 93 million yuan, up 196.87% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 27.07% [3] Capacity and Projects - As of the end of 2023, the company had 10.28 million kilowatts of operational pumped storage capacity and 4.8 million kilowatts under construction [3] - The company has actively engaged in research on various energy storage technologies, including sodium-ion batteries and compressed air storage [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted for 2024-2025 from 1.42 billion and 1.88 billion yuan to 1.26 billion and 1.63 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 24 times, 19 times, and 17 times [3]