Q4业绩环比大幅增长，电解铝盈利进入改善通道

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 42.67 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 11.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.96 billion yuan, down 13.41% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 9.69% year-on-year to 3.93 billion yuan. The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum products was 17.85%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices [4][5] - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 12.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.76%. The net profit for the quarter was 1.45 billion yuan, up 80.25% year-on-year and 46.54% quarter-on-quarter. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 798 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 20.16% [4][5] - The average aluminum price in the Chinese market for Q4 2023 was 18,966 yuan per ton, showing a recovery trend throughout the year. The average price for the entire year was 18,700 yuan per ton, down 6.2% year-on-year. The decline in raw material prices, such as alumina and prebaked anodes, contributed to the expansion of profit margins for electrolytic aluminum [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company produced 1.4283 million tons of alumina, 783,500 tons of carbon products, and 2.3995 million tons of primary aluminum in 2023. The sales volume of aluminum liquid and ingots reached 1.3 million tons, with aluminum alloy sales at 1.23 million tons, marking a historical high [4][5] - The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 48.7 billion yuan, 52.4 billion yuan, and 56.1 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.93 billion yuan, 5.15 billion yuan, and 5.53 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.7%, 4.5%, and 7.2% [5][6] Market Outlook - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in performance due to the recovery of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and stable profit margins. The complete green aluminum industry chain from bauxite to end products helps in controlling upstream raw material costs [5][6]