2023年业绩点评：矿盐跌势错配，盈利暂时承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) [1][2] - The target price is set at 23.40, down from the previous forecast of 26.25 [1][2] Core Views - The company's profitability is currently under pressure due to the decline in lithium salt prices and the lagging decrease in the cost of purchased lithium ore [1] - The company is enhancing its self-sufficiency in lithium ore and ensuring stable raw material supply through its projects, particularly the successful progress of the Indonesian project [1] - Despite the increase in lithium product sales, the profit margins are being squeezed due to falling prices [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 79.51 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 66.09% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.02 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 87.35% in Q4 [1] - The company’s EPS is projected to be 1.17 for 2024 and 1.29 for 2025, down from previous estimates of 1.75 and 2.13 respectively [1] - The company’s PE ratio is currently at 20 times, with a net asset return rate of 5.4% for 2023 [1][2] Production and Sales Data - In 2023, the company produced 5.67 million tons of lithium products, with sales reaching 5.29 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 19.03% and 11.45% respectively [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 25.88 thousand per ton in 2023, down 46.42% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its lithium salt production capacity and actively seeking downstream customers, maintaining stable cooperation with well-known manufacturers [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on securing upstream lithium resources to stabilize raw material supply, with plans to increase its global lithium resource layout [1] - The company’s existing lithium salt production capacity is 7.7 million tons annually, with an additional 6 million tons expected from the Indonesian project in the first half of 2024 [1] - The company aims to enhance its self-sufficiency and improve profitability through strategic partnerships and resource acquisitions [1]