hbky(SH:600985) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985) with a target price of 23.76 CNY, up from the previous target of 17.34 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The coal business remains stable, with coking coal being a growth stock. The overall volume and price of coal have slightly decreased but remain steady. The worst period may have passed, and the chemical business is gradually emerging [1][2]. - The report indicates that the company’s revenue for 2023 is expected to be 73.59 billion CNY, reflecting a 6.26% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.22 billion CNY, down 11.21% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company has adjusted its EPS forecast for 2024 to 2.64 CNY, down by 0.23 CNY, while the 2025 EPS is projected to be 2.91 CNY, and the 2026 EPS is expected to reach 3.21 CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 73.59 billion CNY for 2023, with a slight increase in operating profit to 7.54 billion CNY, despite a decrease in net profit to 6.22 billion CNY [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal remained stable at approximately 1,159 CNY per ton, with production volume at 2,197.34 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 92.94 million tons year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The coal business showed a slight decline in both volume and price, while the chemical business is expected to contribute significantly in the coming years, with methanol and ethanol production capacity increasing [1][2]. - The report notes that the company’s dividend payout ratio has been on an upward trend, with estimates suggesting continued increases in future dividends [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on a 9x PE for 2024, leading to an upward adjustment of the target price to 23.76 CNY. The current price is noted at 16.62 CNY [1][2]. - Key financial ratios include a projected PE of 6.20 for 2024 and a dividend yield of 7.4% [1][2].