STELLA HOLDINGS-2023盈利水平创近10年新高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit margin of 9.5% in 2023, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 8.5% to $1.493 billion [4][5] - The gross profit margin improved to 24.6%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better profitability management [4][5] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70%, with a dividend yield of 8.3% based on the closing price on March 29 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of$ 1.493 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue at $1.445 billion, down 8.9% [5][7] - The operating profit margin reached 10.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency [4][5] - The company plans to continue its capacity expansion, with production distribution in China, Vietnam, and other Asian regions at 26%, 51%, and 23% respectively [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of$ 161 million, $180 million, and$ 199 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 11.9%, and 10.5% [4][5][7] - The average selling price (ASP) for products reached $29.7 in 2023, the highest since 2009, driven by a shift towards higher-end products [4][5] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 10-11 times, with a corresponding fair value range of HKD 15.75 to 17.33 per share [4][5]