长虹美菱23年报点评：历史新阶段有望开启

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that a new historical phase is expected to begin for Changhong Meiling, with significant improvements in financial performance and operational efficiency [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 50.8 billion yuan in Q4 2023, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.4 billion yuan, which is a 194% increase [4] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 24.2 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, reflecting a 203% increase [4] Financial Performance - The report highlights that the company's revenue growth in 2023 was driven by strong performance in air conditioning and washing machines, with air conditioning contributing 48% of total revenue and growing by 18% year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin improved significantly, with the Q4 net profit margin reaching a three-year high [4] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 42%, up from 38% the previous year [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 28.1 billion yuan, 31.0 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 15.8%, 10.5%, and 9.9% [9][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 906 million yuan in 2024, 1.018 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.153 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 22.3%, 12.4%, and 13.3% respectively [9][12] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2023 was reported at 2.1 billion yuan, a 42% year-on-year increase, indicating continuous improvement in cash flow management [4] - The report notes a significant increase in contract liabilities, which reached 410 million yuan by the end of Q4, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.9% in 2023 to 14.4% by 2025 [9][12]